They opened the new Eredivisie campaign with a convincing 2-0 away win at PEC Zwolle, while Heerenveen also started with three points but face a much tougher test in Amsterdam. The historical matchup heavily favors Ajax, who have won 46 of their Eredivisie meetings with Heerenveen compared with just 10 defeats. With the market pricing Ajax around 1.48 for the win and giving them roughly a 60% implied/modelled chance of victory, the setup is straightforward: home advantage, superior pedigree and a favorable matchup. For me, Ajax are the side to back for the three points.

Analysis by Broker Heisenberg - Updated Aug 16, 2026